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Reply to Comment on Using Multiple Observationally-based Constraints to Estimate Climate Sensitivity by Annan and Hargreaves (2006) by Henriksson Et Al. (2010) : Volume 7, Issue 1 (01/02/2011)

By Annan, J. D.

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Book Id: WPLBN0003975425
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Reproduction Date: 2015

Title: Reply to Comment on Using Multiple Observationally-based Constraints to Estimate Climate Sensitivity by Annan and Hargreaves (2006) by Henriksson Et Al. (2010) : Volume 7, Issue 1 (01/02/2011)  
Author: Annan, J. D.
Volume: Vol. 7, Issue 1
Language: English
Subject: Science, Climate, Past
Collections: Periodicals: Journal and Magazine Collection, Copernicus GmbH
Historic
Publication Date:
2011
Publisher: Copernicus Gmbh, Göttingen, Germany
Member Page: Copernicus Publications

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Annan, J. D., & Hargreaves, J. C. (2011). Reply to Comment on Using Multiple Observationally-based Constraints to Estimate Climate Sensitivity by Annan and Hargreaves (2006) by Henriksson Et Al. (2010) : Volume 7, Issue 1 (01/02/2011). Retrieved from http://worldebooklibrary.org/


Description
Description: RIGC/JAMSTEC, 3173-25 Showamachi, Yokohama, Japan. Henriksson et al. (2010), hereafter HALTL10, criticise Annan and Hargreaves (2006a) (AH06) primarily on the grounds that we assumed that different sources of data were conditionally independent given the climate sensitivity. While we consider this approximation to have been a reasonable one in the circumstances (and provided arguments to justify this approach), we also acknowledged its importance in our original paper and performed several sensitivity analyses. The alternative calculations presented by HALTL10 appear to strengthen rather than contradict our conclusion.

HALTL10 additionally criticise Annan and Hargreaves (2009) (AH09) for proposing a Cauchy-type prior (as an alternative to the use of a uniform prior which was widespread up to that time) without sufficient support'', and further claim that our choice was irrationally based on an economic assessment. We are surprised by these baseless claims, especially considering that the proposed prior was justified at some length both on the basis of both the Charney report'' (National Research Council, 1979) and basic physical arguments, and also in light of our elementary demonstration of the pathological failings of the most commonly-used alternative. Thus, these claims are factually incorrect.


Summary
Reply to Comment on Using multiple observationally-based constraints to estimate climate sensitivity by Annan and Hargreaves (2006) by Henriksson et al. (2010)

Excerpt
Hasselmann, K.: Conventional and Bayesian approach to climate-change detection and attribution, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 124, 2541–2565, 1998.; Annan, J. D. and Hargreaves, J. C.: Using multiple observationally-based constraints to estimate climate sensitivity, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, 2006{a}.; Annan, J. D. and Hargreaves, J. C.: Can we believe in high climate sensitivity?, available at: http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0612094, last access: 31 January 2011, 2006{b}.; Annan, J. D. and Hargreaves, J. C.: Probabilistic inference for future climate change, in: AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts, available at: http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007AGUFM.U51B..02A, last access: 31 January 2011, 2007.; Annan, J. D. and Hargreaves, J. C.: On the generation and interpretation of probabilistic estimates of climate sensitivity, Climatic Change, 104, 423–436, doi:10.1007/s10584-009-9715-y, 2009.; Hegerl, G. C., Crowley, T. J., Hyde, W. T., and Frame, D. J.: Climate sensitivity constrained by temperature reconstructions over the past seven centuries, Nature, 440, 1029–1032, 2006.; Hegerl, G. C., Zwiers, F. W., Braconnot, P., Gillett, N., Luo, Y., Orsini, J. M., Nicholls, N., Penner, J., and Stott, P.: Understanding and attributing climate change, in: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Chap. 9, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 663–745, 2007.; Henriksson, S. V., Arjas, E., Laine, M., Tamminen, J., and Laaksonen, A.: Comment on Using multiple observationally-based constraints to estimate climate sensitivity by J. D. Annan and J. C. Hargreaves, Geophys. Res. Lett., 2006, Clim. Past, 6, 411–414, doi:10.5194/cp-6-411-2010, 2010.; Jewson, S., Rowlands, D., and Allen, M. R.: A new method for making objective probabilistic climate forecasts from numerical climate models based on Jeffreys' Prior, available at: http://arxiv.org/abs/0908.4207, last access: 31 January 2011, 2009.; Knutti, R., Stocker, T. F., Joos, F., and Plattner, G.-K.: Constraints on radiative forcing and future climate change from observations and climate model ensembles, Nature, 416, 719–723, 2002.; Lindley, D.: On a measure of the information provided by an experiment, Ann. Math. Stat., 27, 986–1005, 1956.; National Research Council: Carbon Dioxide and Climate: A Scientific Assessment, National Academy Press, Washington, DC, 1979.; Sokolov, A., Stone, P., Forest, C., Prinn, R., Sarofim, M., Webster, M., Paltsev, S., Schlosser, C., Kicklighter, D., Dutkiewicz, S., Reilly, J., Wang, C., Felzer, B., and Jacoby, H.: Probabilistic forecast for 21st century climate based on uncertainties in emissions (without policy) and climate parameters, J. Climate, 22, 5175–5204, 2009.; Urban, N. and Keller, K.: Probabilistic hindcasts and projections of the coupled climate, carbon cycle, and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation system: a Bayesian fusion of century-scale observations with a simple model, Tellus A, 62, 737–750, 2010.; Webster, M. D. and Sokolov, A. P.: A methodology for quantifying uncertainty in climate projections, Climatic

 

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